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Real estate professionals have been urging property investors to get in quick to purchase investment property and beat the rush as cashed up baby boomers transfer their wealth from the stock market to the real estate market. This may seem like a reasonable claim as many Australians; especially those around retirement age feel that they understand real estate as in investment. It is something that they can see and touch where as the stock market is something that works in mysterious ways that they do not fully understand. The decline in share prices across the globe over the last 18 months has entrenched this position and there is a desire to protect what is left of their retirement savings rather than being burnt by further declines in the stock market.

However based on the latest lending data the anticipated increase in property investments is yet to materialise. Rather than real estate investors it is first time owner occupiers who are racing into the market helped in part by government stimulus spending. So why are real estate investors not doing the same? There are a number of reasons why investors may not be entering the property market.

Tougher lending criteria
As a result of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) banks have been setting higher hurdles for investors (and owner occupiers) to qualify for a mortgage. No deposit loans which are in part blamed for causing the sub-prime crisis are increasingly rare with many lenders looking for a minimum 20% deposit and proven lending history before providing mortgage finance. With funding harder to come by there will be investors who wish to purchase property but are unable to do so. It has been suggested that these more stringent lending standards will help protect the Australian real estate market from suffering the kind of falls that have been seen in the US and UK property markets. In reality it will be the banks providing the mortgage finance that are protected by the tougher lending criteria not the real estate investors. If an investor or owner occupier finds they are unable to meet mortgage loan repayments because of unemployment or rising interest rates a gearing level (percentage of debt compared to the value of the property) at 80% or lower is not going to provide any assistance. The tougher lending criteria will mean that should the bank need to sell the property to recover the amount it had lent in mortgage finance they will still be able to recover the full loan amount even if they need to sell at a large discount to the original purchase price, either because the real-estate market has fallen or they want to recover their money quickly.

Loss of equity
The magnitude and speed of the downturn in equity markets has wiped out trillions of dollars in shareholder equity (The ASX All Ords index fell more than 40% in 12 months). Until the start of the Global Recession stock markets around the world had enjoyed significant gains year on year back as far as the tech wreck of the early 2000s. Investors had been able to invest in the share market and take profits to fund real estate acquisitions. In a financial double whammy these investors now find themselves not only without a source of investment income but have also having to provide cash to cover margin calls on loans secured on their share portfolio. With many shares at rock bottom fire sale prices many investors would be reluctant to sell and may therefore look to sell their investment property to raise funds, raising the possibility of a falling real estate market.

Job security fears
Despite record low interest rates and rising rents many investment properties are still negatively geared (net rental income after real estate agent fees does not cover mortgage repayments and other costs meaning that the investor has to cover the shortfall in the hope that this will be repaid in the form of capital growth). With rising unemployment some real-estate investors may have already lost their jobs and finding themselves unable to cover their existing mortgage shortfall they are forced to sell the property, again raising the possibility of a falling real estate market. Other investors may not have lost their jobs but the possibility of being out of work may make them hesitant about taking on additional liabilities that will need to be serviced.

Uncertain profits
Most real estate investors are investing to make a capital gain (i.e. to sell the property at a profit at some time in the future). In the last 12 months the property market has at best been flat or has been falling. The real estate industry has been quick to call the bottom of the market but as real estate agents have a vested interest in this being true many investors are sceptical about this advice especially as these claims have been made many times before. It is true that there has been an increase in demand at the bottom end of the market driven in part by government stimulus payments to first home buyers however this effect is likely to be temporary. Other evidence such as rising unemployment and reduced availability of mortgage finance suggests that the real estate market is likely to head lower

Potentially larger gains elsewhere
Despite the worsening economic outlook some forecasters are claiming the equity markets have bottomed. Share markets around the globe have rallied in recent weeks with many more than 10% up off their lows. Not all investors have been frightened away from investing their money. Some heed Warren Buffett’s advice to be “fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful” Any cashed up investors with a strong appetite for risk will be tempted by gains that may be larger than the lacklustre performance expected from the real estate market.

Over the last decade it seemed that all one needed to do was borrow money and buy shares or property to make a profit, many were fooled into thinking that they were wise investors by these easy gains. Unfortunately this debt fuelled spending could not last and like any bubble it had to burst resulting in the economic melt down and Global Recession that we see today. The GFC has both reduced investor’s ability to purchase new investments and their appetite for risk. Many will prefer to hold cash or bonds until the markets become less volatile and a capital gain looks more assured.

Worldwide investors have lost billions of dollars by placing their money in investments that they did not fully understand. There was an expectation that investors would switch to real estate as an investment that is tangible and easily understood. But the latest data shows that the rush of real estate investors is yet to materialise. Why?

Defined within the realm of the statistical Bell Curve, the long tail would reside in the skinny tail at the borders. The long tail, in regards to goods and services, refers to the evolution away from mainstream offerings towards more niche products and services. With the internet drastically reducing the costs of establishing distribution channels, the ability of entrepreneurs to focus more on the longtail sector to fit their customized needs is gaining increasing appeal.

However, almost no one speaks of the longtail of investing. To me, longtail investment strategies are the strategies that do not heavily rely on fundamental or technical analysis, but exploit other strongly predictive factors to produce not only superior returns to traditional investment strategies but also investment opportunities with far better risk-reward paradigms than those produced by traditional investment strategies. Here are 10 reasons why the longtail of investing is the only way to build wealth.

(1) You will never achieve the level of wealth you desire by handing your money over to a large investment firm. The vast majority of private investors hand their money to large institutions and allow them to invest their money for them. If this were truly the best way to achieve financial freedom, then almost every one you know would be ecstatic with their financial consultant. Think of how many people you know that absolutely rave about their financial consultant.

The fact that 90% of people you know do not rave about their financial consultant should tell you that niche investment strategies, or longtail investment strategies, are far superior. The ones that are happy with the large investment houses already were independently wealthy before they sought out their help. Think about how many people you know that have ever told you, “I wasn’t wealthy before, but thanks to my investment firm, I am wealthy beyond my dreams now.”

(2) Thanks to evolving information technology, there are many other means of making investment decisions than just utilizing fundamental and technical analysis. Though people have been really slow to grasp this, once they do, longtail investment strategies, like those invented by SmartKnowledgeU(TM), will boom. There is no doubt that the level of top-notch financial, political and corporate information available to the average investor has increased by leaps and bounds within the past decade.

There is a virtual treasure map that was created by the flattening of the world over the past decade to selecting stocks that are poised to explode. However, because the largest, most powerful investment institutions in the world have kept the masses of investors fixated on traditional investment techniques such as value and fundamental analysis, the longtail of investment strategies is currently much further behind in its developmental phases than it should be.

The best analogy I can use when explaining why people have ignored the long tail of investment strategies is to compare it to the incredibly slow adoption of Internet Protocol Version 6 (Ipv6) by the United States. When China started preparing its country for Ipv6 a decade ago, the benefits in increased security and its added value properties in e-commerce were evident even back then. However, people in the U.S. were comfortable with the lesser Ipv4 so did not take any action until the progress and superior internet and business capabilities of China, Korea, Taiwan, and Hong Kong finally embarrassed the U.S. enough to move forward and catch up with Asia.

I see the same thing happening in the educational realm of investing. Everyone is comfortable with the traditional investment strategies that have been propagated for the last several decades so nobody sees a need to move forward even though much better strategies exist today. Just as with Ipv6, the world will eventually realize that the safest and best means of investing money reside in the longtail, and they will eventually adopt these strategies.

(3) With so much investor skepticism of corporate integrity sparked by past accounting scandals at Enron, WorldCom, General Motors and the like, and the current, ongoing backdating option scandals, investors will increasingly seek alternate means of making investment decisions other than crunching numbers that they feel are untrustworthy. Furthermore, technical analysis often yields false positives as well. A chart will show indexes that appear bullish having just broken through a ceiling of resistance only to have the index turn back downward for a prolonged period of time, or a chart will appear bearish having just broken through a floor of resistance only to turn around and begin another bullish ascent.

In fact, you have seen some of these turnaround trends with some of the technical posts that I’ve placed on my blog in previous months. In fact, that is why I always state that I never rely solely on technical indicators to make my decisions. I rely only on technical indicators to confirm or dispel what my long tail investment strategies tell me. Of the three types of analysis, fundamental, technical and long tail, long tail investment strategies yield by far the least amount of false negatives and false positives. That’s why I rely on them so heavily.

This sentiment will lead to an evolution of longtail investment strategies, and the discovery of more efficient and better predictive means of making investment decisions than even those that already exist. Even current longtail investment strategies, such as those utilized at SmartKnowledgeU(TM) are constantly evolving as access to reliable information increases every year. Making decisions as if you were a fly on the wall of boardrooms is no longer a fantasy. It is possible, thanks to the evolution of the information landscape.

(4) With the growth of blogs and pure information sites on the web, the stranglehold of global investment myths, including the Modern Portfolio Theory of diversification, will soon be exposed for what they are – cleverly disguised sales strategies posing as investment strategies. Once people realize this, longtail investment strategies will gain wider acceptance, much like acupuncture and herbal medicine eventually gained credibility as healing regimens in the schools of Western medicine.

(5) Wider acceptance of alternative, longtail investment strategies that far outperform those utilized by global investment firms will happen as word of successes via these strategies spread throughout the world via the internet. The internet distribution channel can and will be used to change the mindset of investors.

(6) The Do-It-Yourselfers are Growing – With the success of books such as Stephen Covey’s “The Eight Habit” that emphasize personal accountability to achieve excellence versus handing control over to someone else, cultural shifts will happen whereby people will seek to seize control over their own financial future versus just handing their money to a firm to manage. As this cultural shift happens, multitudes of people will realize that they are shorting their returns significantly every single year by handing their money to global investment houses.

(7) The flattening of the world and accessibility to previously inaccessible investment information will undoubtedly yield an increasing amount of investment strategies that reside in the longtail. People will realize the foolishness of believing in the one investment strategy thrust upon them by global investment houses for the past half of century as “the only viable and safe way to invest.” If the younger generation takes an interest in investing, adding their creativity to the investment arena will result in explosive growth in the longtail of investment strategies. However, since the odds of this occurrence are quite low, a more gradual shift towards niche investment strategies is much more likely.

(8) The explosion of social networking sites like YouTube, MySpace, Friendster, and so forth, will amplify the viral marketing of longtail investment concepts. Again, ignorance of longtail investment strategies causes fear and hesitancy to use them. Viral marketing of longtail investment concepts will increase millions of investors’ comfort level with these different and unique concepts.

(9) People are ultimately interested in returns, no matter how much global investment firms try to separate themselves from their competitors with smoke and mirror service claims. All the gratitude for luxury box suites at Los Angeles Lakers games, suites at the Four Seasons Hotel, conferences at world-class golf courses and resorts will quickly wither once people realize how much more money they are earning with longtail investment strategies.

(10) Again, because people will readily abandon all the perks they get as a preferred client at a large investment firm for far superior returns on their portfolios, longtail investing will eventually reach a critical mass. Eventually the longtail of investing will migrate towards the center and become the mainstream methods of investing, though this may take several decades to occur.

This article may be freely reprinted on another website as long as it is not modified, changed, or altered in any way and as long as the below author byline is included along with the active hyperlinks below:

JS Kim is the Managing Director of SmartKnowledgeU, a fiercely independent investment research & consulting firm that uses proprietary strategies to create wealth during this ongoing financial & monetary crisis. JS Kim’s predictions over the past 3 years have been so startling accurate that the Financial Times, Reuters, and the International Business Times often reprint his articles.

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